Dispatches from the Potomac#51 | America’s Post-Election Landscape

This is a translation of an article originally written in November 2024 for publication in the January 2025 edition of the Marubeni Group Magazine, M-SPIRIT.

General Manager, Washington DC Office, Marubeni America Corporation    Yusuke Inoue

Trump Managed to Attract Support From Historic Democratic Strongholds

November 5: the day of the presidential election. Until the last minute, predictions indicated a very close race, with many anticipating that it would take some time before the results were known. There was also an anticipated risk of demonstrations or even violent riots, the odds of which were expected to rise the closer the election result was to a tie. Washington, D.C. saw many locals putting emergency preparations in place; buildings near Marubeni’s office, for instance, had their windows boarded up. However, once the votes started to be counted, it became apparent that the Republican candidate, former President Trump, was in the lead, and by the next morning, it was clear that Trump had secured each of the key battleground states and won the election. In a speech later that day to her supporters, Democratic candidate Vice President Harris conceded defeat and promised a peaceful transfer of power; no major demonstrations or disruptions followed. Thus, the 2024 presidential election ended more unexpectedly than anyone had imagined.

Looking back, this was certainly an unusual election. Initially, the respective Democratic and Republican candidates were, once again, Biden and Trump (who had lost to Biden in 2020), setting up a 2024 rematch between the two. As neither candidate had a strong rival from within their own party, there was minimal excitement during the primaries—until, that is, the televised debate on June 26. President Biden’s voice was hoarse and lacking in energy, and his sentences would often trail off in the middle, leaving many viewers concerned about his age and perceived fragility. As the Democratic Party fell into chaos over the prospect of losing the election with Biden as their candidate, a major incident also occurred on the Republican side: the July 13 attempted assassination of Trump while he spoke at an open-air campaign rally in Pennsylvania, where he suffered an injury to his right ear. Despite this, Trump got back on his feet and inspired his supporters, and it looked like he would march on to victory.

Around a week later, on July 21, Biden finally withdrew from his re-election bid. As the Democrats’ candidate selection process went back to square one, Vice President Harris suddenly emerged as the party’s top choice. With the appearance of Harris, a Black woman of Indian descent, the mood of the election campaign changed completely, and for some time, it appeared that the Democrats would regain their momentum by appealing for a future filled with hope. However, this enthusiasm gradually died down and, toward the end, the Harris campaign seemed to fizzle out.

An analysis of the election results shows that Trump gained support not only from white, less-educated workers, but also from younger voters and non-white ethnic groups. In other words, he managed to attract voters who have historically formed a key base for the Democratic Party, which values diversity and liberal ideals. In addition, for the first time in his three runs for the presidency, Trump received more votes than the Democratic candidate on a national scale. The direct deciding factor in this election was his victory in all seven of the battleground states, as he increased his support in traditionally Democratic strongholds and urban areas. While the difference in voting patterns between men and women attracted attention as well, Trump also received more votes from women than in the previous election.

Hopes for Economic Improvement Under the Republicans

One reason for Trump’s victory was widespread dissatisfaction with the economy. In his speeches, Trump asked whether people’s lives had improved compared to four years ago, and the answer from voters was a clear “no.” Although inflation has subsided, the cost of living remains high, and despite macroeconomic factors indicating the U.S. economy is doing well, many Americans are still struggling to make ends meet. Meanwhile, asset prices rose during the economic recovery period following the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, which contributed to supporting consumption. However, workers with relatively few assets, young people, and minorities are less likely to have benefitted from this. In other words, there is a large gap between the haves and the have-nots. In the U.S. of today, where housing, education, and medical costs are high, a stable middle-class lifestyle may be harder to achieve compared to previous eras.

American voters have chosen to change the administration in charge three times in a row since 2016. This time, voters who were critical of the Biden administration’s economic management once again called for change, which happened to take the form of Trump, rather than actively supporting Trump himself. This is the landscape that Trump will find himself facing when he is inaugurated as the 47th president on January 20, 2025. It will certainly be interesting to see how he responds to these voters’ voices.