Dispatches from the Potomac#50 | The Potential for a Female POTUS The Harris Nomination and the State of Women in America TodayThe Harris Nomination and the State of Women in America Today
This is a translation of an article originally written in August 2024 for publication in the October 2024 edition of the Marubeni Group Magazine, M-SPIRIT.
General Manager, Washington DC Office, Marubeni America Corporation Yusuke Inoue
The shape of the 2024 U.S. presidential election—initially expected to be a rematch between President Biden, a Democrat, and former President Trump, a Republican—changed dramatically on June 27, when a televised debate between the two candidates threw concerns about Biden’s age into sharp relief. The month that followed saw a whirlwind of rapid changes in the political landscape: panic and calls for an alternative nominee within the Democratic Party, the Trump assassination attempt, the excitement and certainty of Trump’s victory on display at the Republican National Convention, Biden’s announcement that he would not stand for reelection, and the confirmation of Vice President Kamala Harris as the new Democratic presidential nominee.
Compared to 2016, Fewer Americans Today Would Welcome a Female President
What kind of person is Harris, a candidate suddenly thrust into the spotlight? While the fact that she is Vice President is well known, she has not had many opportunities to speak about her own policies—what issues she intends to prioritize, for instance, or her vision for the country. To some extent, her illustrious career, including service as the District Attorney of San Francisco, the Attorney General of California, and a U.S. Senator, speaks for itself. The bulk of her career was spent in law enforcement via the judiciary, a decision said to be prompted by her desire to change the history of inadequate enforcement of equality under U.S. law. Harris’s ideal of creating a more equitable society, one that takes each person’s individual circumstances into account, rather than a simpler pursuit of equality in terms of opportunities and outcomes, is likely to resonate with young people and minority groups.
If elected, Harris will become the first female president of the United States. Looking back on the 2016 election, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, a Democrat, became the first female presidential nominee from a major party. Despite winning the popular vote, she was narrowly defeated by Trump in the Electoral College. Looking at the popular vote, while Clinton won 54% of women’s votes, she only picked up 41% of the men’s. Even among women, Clinton did not sweep all demographic categories: 53% of white women in general, and 64% of white women without a college degree, voted for Trump. In one recent poll of Americans, 54% said they would welcome a female president, compared to 30% who would feel negatively. While 54% is still a majority, it also represents a drop of 9 percentage points compared to a similar survey eight years ago, indicating there is not necessarily a wider acceptance of the prospect of a female president today than in 2016.
Almost No Progress Made in Closing the Gender Wage Gap in Two Decades
Many in Japan and elsewhere have the impression that the U.S. is ahead of the rest of the world in gender equality and women’s advancement in society. Indeed, the Biden administration has actively supported women’s empowerment, appointing women to half of all cabinet positions, and four of the Supreme Court’s nine justices are now also women. However, women make up only around a third of Congress members and 10% of Fortune 500 company CEOs. In terms of the wider economy, women comprise 47% of the labor market, up significantly from 30% in 1950. Women’s income levels, however, remain at only 80% of men’s, despite women with college or graduate degrees outnumbering similarly qualified men in the labor market. This disparity is due not only to differences in occupational choice, but also to women being paid less than men for the same work. In fact, the gender wage gap has hardly improved over the past 20 years, and in that sense, progress toward gender equality seems to have come to a standstill.
Quite a few of the most hotly contested issues in this election are directly related to women. The Democrats’ support for abortion rights—or, as they often say, “a woman’s right to choose”—is based on the permissibility (or rather, lack thereof) of the government placing restrictions on a woman’s decisions and actions, not that of abortion itself. Harris has also brought up the care economy as a key issue: The cost of outsourcing childcare or care for the elderly beyond the home—where it is often provided by women—is frequently cost-prohibitive; meanwhile, the wages of those involved in providing such services (again, often women) are extremely low. To alleviate this and lower the barriers to women’s entry into the labor market, Harris has proposed providing free childcare and other support for caregivers. The burdens associated with economic and inflationary issues, most voters’ top priority, tend to fall on women with relatively low incomes, with many Americans eagerly awaiting various measures to improve women’s living standards and assuage their economic concerns.
The election of the first female president would be a historic event for the United States. Even more significant is the active, serious discussion of various issues important to women. Regardless of the outcome of the election, I hope to see the day when we have realized a society that is truly equitable to women.
